ZM/Date Published 18 August 2026
In Zambia the match matters more than the bookmaker
Across Zambia's opening-weekend board, the difference between the cheapest match to bet and the dearest is far larger than the difference between the cheapest house and the dearest.
At the best available prices, one fixture this weekend is priced to within 0.60% of a fair book and another carries almost six times that. Both are Premier League matches on the same weekend in the same market.
That is not how most people think about value. The instinct is to pick a bookmaker and then pick a bet. In Zambia this weekend, picking the match was worth more.
Two matches, one weekend, one market, and a sixfold difference in what the bet costs you.
The weekend, fixture by fixture
The best number on each result, the house holding it, and the market's own read on the match once margin is taken out. The final figure on each line is what makes this piece: the cost of the board on that match.
- Arsenal v Coventry, Fri 21 Aug1.19 10bet / 7.60 10bet / 16.00 10bet · 81 / 13 / 6%
- Hull City v Manchester United, Sat 22 Aug8.80 1xBet / 5.27 betPawa / 1.42 1xBet · 11 / 19 / 70%
- Ipswich v Sunderland, Sat 22 Aug2.82 1xBet / 3.43 1xBet / 2.72 betPawa · 35 / 29 / 36%
- Nottingham Forest v Leeds, Sat 22 Aug2.40 betPawa / 3.48 1xBet / 3.23 1xBet · 41 / 28 / 31%
- Everton v Crystal Palace, Sat 22 Aug2.25 1xBet / 3.54 SportyBet / 3.50 1xBet · 44 / 28 / 28%
- Brentford v Tottenham, Sat 22 Aug2.54 betPawa / 3.73 SportyBet / 2.87 1xBet · 39 / 27 / 34%
- Manchester City v Bournemouth, Sun 23 Aug1.51 1xBet / 5.25 betPawa / 6.30 1xBet · 65 / 19 / 16%
- Brighton v Aston Villa, Sun 23 Aug2.37 betPawa / 3.75 1xBet / 3.15 1xBet · 42 / 27 / 32%
- Newcastle v Liverpool, Sun 23 Aug3.73 1xBet / 4.16 1xBet / 2.01 betPawa · 27 / 24 / 49%
- Fulham v Chelsea, Mon 24 Aug3.72 1xBet / 3.96 1xBet / 2.06 betPawa · 27 / 25 / 48%
Newcastle against Liverpool is priced to 0.60%, effectively a fair book. Arsenal against Coventry carries 3.44%. The first is a close match between two well-followed sides on a Sunday afternoon. The second is a heavy favourite in the Friday opener.
Both of those facts push the same way. Competition follows attention, and attention follows a genuine contest at a decent hour.
What the markets cost across the board
Averaged over the weekend, margin is what the odds carry above a fair book. The differences by market are large.
- Match result4.05% at a typical book, 1.23% at the best available price
- Over and under 2.5 goals5.93% at a typical book, 2.61% at the best available price
- Both teams to score6.71% at a typical book, 4.23% at the best available price
Comparing prices on a result cuts the cost to under a third of what a typical house charges. On both teams to score it saves proportionally less and leaves a much bigger number behind.
The Zambian board is keen on results, and squarely mid-table on goals.
How the houses compare
Averaged across the same matches: overall, then match result, then over and under 2.5 goals, then both teams to score.
- 1xBet3.95% overall · 1.55% · 2.76% · 7.55%
- betPawa4.04% overall · 2.21% · 4.98% · 4.93%
- SportyBet4.32% overall · 1.99% · 6.10% · 4.89%
- Bolabet4.54% overall · 3.95% · 5.01% · 4.66%
- Easywin4.63% overall · 3.99% · 4.98% · 4.93%
- 10bet5.69% overall · 3.05% · 6.00% · 8.06%
- BongoBongo6.23% overall · 5.39% · 6.33% · 6.97%
- Melbet6.26% overall · 5.36% · 5.87% · 7.55%
- Betta16.69% overall · 4.04% · 8.05% · 8.00%
- Castlebet6.85% overall · 6.47% · 6.46% · 7.61%
- Mojabet7.67% overall · 6.56% · 7.94% · 8.50%
The top of this table is unusually crowded. The leading names sit within half a point of each other overall and take very different routes to get there, one keen on results and dear on goals, another even across both.
From top to bottom the range is roughly double, which is real but smaller than the fixture-to-fixture range on the board above. That is the comparison this weekend rewards.
Where the disagreement sits
The widest gaps of the weekend, and the bands that show which kinds of price attract them.
- Hull City v Manchester United, home win7.68 at one book against 8.80 at another, 15% better
- Hull City v Manchester United, the draw4.60 at one book against 5.27 at another, 15% better
- Manchester City v Bournemouth, the draw4.77 at one book against 5.25 at another, 10% better
- Manchester City v Bournemouth, away win5.80 at one book against 6.30 at another, 9% better
- Arsenal v Coventry, the draw7.04 at one book against 7.60 at another, 8% better
- Favourites, under 2.001.53% below the best price on average
- Middling prices, 2.00 to 4.002.84% below
- Long shots, over 4.004.75% below
Hull City at home is available at 7.68 in one place and 8.80 in another. On ZMW 200 that is ZMW 224 of difference for the same opinion.
The bands below follow the usual pattern, with long prices shaded about three times as hard as short ones.
How much comparison is worth here
Given how evenly matched the leading houses are, the question is how quickly a bettor gets to the top of the board.
- 1xBet46% of the best prices, 98.8% of the value
- Adding betPawa74% of the best prices, 99.7% of the value
- Adding Bolabet91% of the best prices, 99.4% of the value
- Adding SportyBet96% of the best prices, 99.4% of the value
The value climbs almost immediately and then flattens, which is what a crowded top tier produces. Two names get a Zambian bettor essentially everything the best board is worth.
What the first weekend teaches
Compare matches, not just books. The cost of the board varied more across this weekend's fixtures than across the market's houses. Choosing which match to bet is a pricing decision, not only a football one.
The opener is expensive. The Friday night match carried the widest board of the round. If that repeats, it is a standing argument for waiting until Saturday.
Watch the top three. Half a point separates the leading houses. That is close enough that one round of movement could reorder them, and it is the reason this series runs every week rather than once.
This is the first instalment. The numbers will be rerun each round.
Every bookmaker in this analysis
- 1xBet3.95%
- betPawa4.04%
- SportyBet4.32%
- Bolabet4.54%
- Easywin4.63%
- 10bet5.69%
- BongoBongo6.23%
- Melbet6.26%
- Betta16.69%
- Castlebet6.85%
- Mojabet7.67%
The fixtures, priced live
- Arsenal v Coventry21 August
- Hull City v Manchester United22 August
- Ipswich v Sunderland22 August
- Nottingham Forest v Leeds22 August
- Everton v Crystal Palace22 August
- Brentford v Tottenham22 August
- Manchester City v Bournemouth23 August
- Brighton v Aston Villa23 August
- Newcastle v Liverpool23 August
- Fulham v Chelsea24 August
Elsewhere on BetCheck
- Every Zambian bookmaker, compared
- Match previews, published daily
- Accas of the day
- More smart betting guides
Method
Odds from the Zambian bookmakers listed above on the Premier League fixtures of 21 to 24 August 2026, as at 18 August. Margin is the sum of the implied probabilities of every outcome in a market, less 100%. The best available price takes the highest number quoted on each outcome anywhere in the Zambian market. Percentages beside a fixture are the market's own view of it once margin is stripped out. Odds move; the numbers here describe a snapshot, not a guarantee. 18+. Bet responsibly.
